Courtesy of INO Traders Blog
A Fintech, RoboAdvisors and Dividends Journal; My financial Trek through the risky business of investing online
Volatility is up in the Markets and not much change since my last post where the same factors weigh in on indexes and prices. Some financial posts I have read are about people selling and figuring on going safe with bonds. That one doesn't make much sense to me where they ain't paying very much these days.
Usually, the safe haven is Gold they say but price has dropped to low $1900s per ounce. That inflating bubble has let out some air in that precious metal recently. People/investors/DIY'ers are getting more financially tuned in as time goes on and not like the old days of; out of sight ... out of mind high fee mutual funds. Day traders and such along with the big outfits in Wallstreet/Baystreet watch the news/events and when stocks or gold get unusually high in price, they sell taking gains which kicks off a roller coaster down at times like the big Tech firms these past couple weeks.
I have confidence in the Banks during turbulent times and REIT's although with REIT's and dividends; looks like Canada is now coping with a possible 2nd wave of the covid ... 'if' this is the 2nd wave or will it flare up even more later the winter?
Through it all, there are several decent and steady 'monthly' income stocks out there as individual or combined in a low fee ETF.
After last week's 'see-saw' battle of selling and buying major Tech stocks that affect the Markets, I'll see if things calm down this week. My mind is on Banks in the meantime this week as a more safe move during this rough patch. I own an iShares Canadian Bank, which is holding it's own and moving up some compared to the rest that are kind of flat currently with the past week's going's on.
A lot more issues on the go this year and that brings on more risk when making investing decisions.
Tech stocks like Apple, Google, Microsoft and online shopping giant Amazon are heavy 'weights' in the North American stock Markets along with Shopify, etc up here in Canada and their stock price increased faster during the pandemic.
The hammer fell at the end of last week with a big drop in the Markets where it looks like it was 'profit taking time' as top weighted Tech prices fell some. Here in Canada, our TSX usually gets the fallout from all this and that was felt more on Friday although still above the 16,000 points level.
Not much to do on my end but wait for next week to see if that storm has passed, which I hope ... or more 'selling' going on and adjusting of portfolios.
It's been quite a crazy 2020 so far and got a feeling that will spill over into 2021 while the pandemic is far from over as cases increase across Canada once again.
Now that the Markets overall are coming up to pre-pandemic levels, there's another wrench thrown in some are speculating about. Back then, there were worries of a crash coming anyway due to an over-inflated market and now hints of that are surfacing again heading into September.
However, depending what an investor is into, most of my stocks/REIT's I held throughout are still below February 2020 high levels. Sell before the Market will possibly drop again in the near future? ... I seen in a couple articles recently. That one doesn't make sense where that would still end in a loss overall. Just because various indexes are up, doesn't mean that stocks that lag behind it are as well.
There's a lot more chatter about Bitcoin along with the stock market as a haven like Gold. Probably, where Bitcoin is more and more reacting to movements in the markets like the S&P 500. But depends at what price/level a buy is being done with Bitcoin.
Investors can still get burned where BTC remains risky with the wild and unpredictable swings. Much more volatile than Gold but I'm accustomed to it from experience over the years.
Months seem to fly be for me and ex-dividend dates are approaching for August for stock(s) I'm interested in. I get 'buys' in before that date to capture the following month's dividend payment.
I'm currently involved with an ETF with TD Bank and it's kind of where I like to be with an ETF ... low cost, low fee with a decent monthly distribution and a healthy list of holdings. TD categorizes their ETF's in sectors and mine is in 'Special Focus' ... targeted exposure to specific market segments or geographies. TQCD - TD Q Canadian Dividend.
With ETF's, I watch the top weighted stocks that the managers stick with over time.
Special Focus, pretty well describes what I'm into, focusing mainly on Financials and 'low cost' REIT's with again ... decent monthly dividends. The pandemic has impacted a lot of sectors but many REIT's have come through ok so far.
Next week, where I watch Financials, the big banks of Canada are due to report how they have fared money wise. Normally reporting gains in the billions; probably short some with the covid-19 fallout but they are far from hurting I'm sure. These days though, car loans and mortgages are picking up, which Banks like to see ... interest payments.
With the odd dip during the week, the Markets continue to rise. No rhyme or reason to it, just investors continuing on their pre-pandemic path to make money.
Lots of talk about Gold and it's hovering around the $2000 USD price per ounce. Up about $500+/- since the start of the year.
'The Equedia Letter' I subscribe to .... the latest post is about Gold mining. He followed up on Calibre Mining Corporation ( a BC company) CXB.TO. that he wrote about last year and folks investing at that time would of more than doubled their 'stake' in that stock ... currently close to the $2 range.
Calibre continues to expand it's mining operation and making good progress while Ivan, the author ... makes a strong case to hold rather than sell.
So, I've been following this Calibre story and interested to see what the future holds. No doubt, with the price of Gold up ... that has an impact on the stock price as well and their bottom line. Also the price of Gold has an impact on the stock price as well, either short or long term effect.
Seems the consensus is that the Markets are over valued now to the issues and circumstances that continue as fallouts from the covid-19 pandemic. But new generations have entered the Markets and more folks moving away from 'managed' funds ... learning from history with the old theme ... buy low, sell high, trying to time the 'bottoms', which rarely works.
I find Air Canada (AC) a good example. Mid January 2020, the stock was peaking at $52. 18th to 20th of March ... down to $12.
It went back up as high as $23 on the 8th of June where there were articles about young investors figuring the airline would soon be picking up again. Not likely ... not yet and July 31st, Friday back to $15.11 where Air Canada reported over a billion in losses while still in a pandemic phase. Parked aircraft and mass layoffs for now.
Gains were made when buying near the bottom and selling above; after March 20th but what I'm getting at is the stock was way overvalued already on the 8th of June ... driven up by hype.
Interesting to see how August fares where the TSX is bouncing around the low 16,000 points range .. way up from the bottom of 11,000 earlier this year.
I read quite a few financial related Blogs, articles, sites and books/magazines keeping up on the latest but I like this 'Sharing With You' article by the Editor of 'Canadian Money' magazine ... Peter Hodson, CFA.
So, I'll share parts of it ...
We will focus on the Market lesson. The main lesson is this: If you ever, ever thought you could out-think the market and engage in successful market timing, then the first half of 2020 should be enough for you to forget this belief - completely and forever.
So many investors moved to cash, and now are nearly 40% behind because of their belief in 'timing' the crisis. (They go on a giant rally. Some markets, such as the Nasdaq, have even hit all-time highs)
I can't do it. You can't do it. The experts can't do it. Don't even try ...
Stay safe; enjoy your summer. The world should be be back to normal one of these days.
During these uncertain times, those that are into stocks for the dividends with growth as a bonus such as I am, watch the latest news and the stats from month to month. All good on my end to date all though my holding's prices fell of course with the covid-19 issue; still very much a real problem here in Canada. They'll eventually climb again but it will be awhile.
Meanwhile, seems investors are eager to make money and driving up the markets such as the TSX here in Canada. Is it too soon and will there be another major drop to come with the uncertainty about the virus and no 'needle' for it yet? Nobody knows that answer unfortunately.
The economy gears 'are' slowly turning faster but once the US/Canada border opens that could be a different picture .. that's for later to ponder over.
Not much has changed in the Market place as covid-19 continues to rock the boat certain days of a given week. Meanwhile, with all the potential out there while most stock prices are down from their 'norms', I research the playing field for my next buy.
The latest summary from the 'Millennial Revolution' couple and their Blog with regards to Wealthsimple's ETF's; Comparing the portfolios that use about the same mix of stocks and risk ... the outcome is near similar. They estimate it will take a couple years longer putting in the same amount of funds at a steady rate into Wealthsimple than their portfolio to retire with enough cash to last. Starting at a young age like 20's that is. Good to know about all their research into that.
Ad we know, there will be unforeseen bumps in the road like the covid-19 pandemic this year with a possible rebound or 2nd wave this coming winter.
Ending up June ... a spike in the covid-19 cases in the US (more hard hit are the southern States) have got investors stalled for now. I figure the stocks are at good buy levels again after coming down some. I did add funds looking at the future prospects not the short term.
Looking at the TSX index, it's been on a rocky, but steady climb from the end of the 10 year Bull run when the virus, covid-19 virus became shockingly real here in Canada and on March 23 ... the TSX dropped to 11,285 points. On June 8th, the TSX was just shy of 16,000 points and that's a lot of cash pumped in since the lows of March. As of last Friday, just shy of dropping to 15,100 points.
So, most stocks depending on what's happening on a particular weekday follow the S&P/TSX Composite Index. A good example is my watching the token Tezos (XTZ) with Bitcoin being the crypto 'index'. Tezos lags but eventually follows the ups and downs of the price of Bitcoin.
I'm into waiting for a 'bottoming out', which I wish I could predict but that's in a perfect world but ain't happening. Somewhere near I estimate and then I want to buy or trade. I also have to keep a reign on that where there's a 50/50 chance the bottom I figured on had a trap door and the indexes fall further down.
This is all Canada related and I'll eventually move into the US Markets looking for decent dividend related stocks for the RRSP. Basic principals apply but the US is a much larger marketplace.
At times, any news about a possible second wave of the covid-19 sends the stock markets into the 'red'. That's usually shrugged off in a day or two and a more positive light shines on the Markets once again. Plus all the other international news that weighs in .. good or bad.
When the covid is finally in the rear view mirror, Markets will continue to react to news that's mind boggling at times and I wonder ... What?! That's insignificant compared to a world wide pandemic but that's the Markets.
Meanwhile, my recent buys climbed nicely until the news about a 2nd wave in China but still ahead overall at the end of last week. I kind of figure this is all bouncing around a possible 'bottom' so I'll carry on with some new buys.
REIT's, financials and energy (not oil related where the Saudi's on a whim can send oil related stocks crashing) are of interest currently. Travel and airlines will be coming but awhile down the road yet.
I'll add Millennial Revolution's latest blog post about Wealthsimple's 'robo advisor' ETF investment plans since I started the first of that series. It's a hands off approach that Wealthsimple adjusts and auto repurchases dividends earned. There are pros and cons as a DIY investor.
Once I got started in the Stock world after a year of basically watching and learning (knowing that like everything, I learn faster by experiencing) and getting a few spends squared away, I quickly found out that I need a plan to help with the spreading out and growth. It becomes information overload after awhile.
One side, I've bought a few ETF's that are now coming up in price from the pandemic lows. On the other side, individual stocks/REIT's. I got this draft of a plan from Mark of the 'My Own Advisor' Blog/Newsletter.
I seen he bought ETF's and began building a separate portfolio from those like his own personal ETF.
I quickly seen in my ETF's, the experienced managers with BlackRock and TD have 'top weighted' stocks which they rely on for performance to keep the ETF on par with expectations.
There are equally weighted ETF's with each stock getting the same percentage to equal 100% with their holdings but I prefer individual weighting or rating ETF's.
I began concentrating on these top 'weighted' stocks. You begin to see a pattern of the best performers over time and any changes as these ETF's get re-balanced at intervals. What works for them surely will perform for me is my thinking.
However, there are some jewels down in the 'Holdings' with less weighting that perform great I have witnessed.
I see a lot of advertising of this stock or that stock. Some of these are top performers no doubt but do these people who post the articles actually own these stocks or is it for pumping their own portfolio, or for 'pump and dump' purposes. When a lot of funds suddenly go into a stock from their suggestions there's usually a short term spike in price that can be taken advantage of ... a flare for marketing helps.
The method I have chosen gives me a better picture with what stocks actual big firm portfolio managers are deciding on and picking to serve their clients and these days, at low MER's or yearly fees. These firms want to remain near the top or top in their field so there's some competition going on as well.
The ultimate goal here with the plan is to own and keep these top weighted stocks separate, which will require re-balancing at times from me and eventually cut down on the ETF's owned to eliminate management fees where I'm a DIY'er. There are no fees with just owning individual stocks.
I'm not going to pretend I can 'time' the markets for a steady gain. Ain't going to happen on a consistent basis where there's too many variables involved and that gets added daily, sometimes multiple times a day affecting stocks.
But, I can get a feel with big dips in the Market and keeping a vigil on the news, when we perhaps have hit a 'bottom' of a depression and moving up because of the covid-19 pandemic the last couple months for example.
Markets didn't stay down long before trying to shrug off the weight of everything happening plus the oil price war that's settling down some these days. Keeping in mind as well, markets at times can react differently to gloom and doom news than one would expect. Instead of dropping like a rock for the day, it's inching up. What the? Yep, makes no sense at times.
Last week, midweek actually ... I was getting the feeling markets were going to rise up some more so prepared some funding for buying and did that. So far, made gains on what I bought (more on last Friday) but see if that holds up before I pat myself on the back for a decent move where it's ever a learning process in this game.
Interesting to see how next week starts out like on Monday with the 'weekend news' already influencing some investor's opinions on hold, buy more or sell some. I'm not here to sell quick or like day traders but if losers become apparent, time to act quick I figure. Haven't had to do that yet,
I remain 'bullish' in this bear market with the REIT scene. Although the TSX is beginning to rise from the pandemic lows, more issues begin to weigh in like the predictable Trump/China spats that get investors nervous.
I purchased Blackrock's ETF: XRE iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF
It's a package of Canadian REIT's with monthly dividends that gets adjusted quarterly or earlier if the Managers figure it's needed. Can't go wrong I figure and hopefully the ETF will regain it's pre covid-19 price in the future for a gain as well. I'll be buying more over the months ahead.
My plan is to also buy REIT's outside of that ETF that are performing ok, as we slowly come out of the pandemic with dividends in tact. There are a few that interest me and I currently hold.
One still needs to be cautious however with the talk of a 2nd wave of covid-19 although the Feds figure we are more prepared for that.
A good measure of the market crash this year with a mixed bag of ETF's holding a 60% weight of equities and a 1.2+ million dollar portfolio .. a loss of around $200,000 dollars of which that amount is being regained lately.
The Markets continue to be in a fog. Is the fog lifting? If not, when and how fast? Unfortunately, no answers to that with what they call 'uncharted water's with the ongoing major virus issue.
Quite a few of the stocks I watch haven't moved much in price lately, slightly up and slightly down over the trading days since the big drop. Suggests a bottom or new starting point in this world of the 'new' normal way of doing things.
One Blog I follow and I like they way they write their posts with a touch of comedy is called, Millennial Revolution.
The couple retired early in their lives when their goal of 1 million was reached with dedicated saving and investing. In the post link below you can see they got hit like everybody from the 'the big drop' this year but their portfolios are climbing slowly again. (Not the first time ... 2008 as well) The post shows a snapshot of what's happening with the pandemic impact as North America struggles to free itself of the virus. This can all be applied to the small and 'whale' investors as invests adjust to the whim of the Markets that stayed in.
They mention 'cash cushions' which is important and with the history/pattern of the Markets, there will be another bull market in the future. Could be months or a year(s) but once economies get rolling again, that's certainly a plus.
Personally, I'm a DIY(Do It Yourself) investor and read/compare strategies but follow my own path. I learn quick ... like what's solid ground and what looks like quicksand (too much risk) with some fun involved plus that satisfaction when making decent choices. It's something I enjoy in both the stock and crypto markets. Keeping in mind these markets can also be cruel and unforgiving with no one to pick you up, dust you off and make you money as a DIY'er but that's the risk I accept. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Oil is moving up in price while reserves remain full and OPEC cutting back production some. No explaining that as Tankers bob in our oceans full to the gills but China is back in production so using more oil as other countries attempt to do the same. That's one plus for the Markets but the oil business is certainly unpredictable in 2020, with the Saudi's stirring up the works.
There are some jewels in this covid-19 filled uncertainty with the stocks but like it all, I can't base future performance based on the past but ok for reference when making choices. For example, a REIT called RioCan (REI-UN.TO) updating they will be staying as is with their monthly dividend of 0.12 cents per share. That's fairly high compared to other REIT's in Canada.
Back in February, RioCan was over $25 a share, or unit ... today; under $14.
Probably will regain it's pre-covid-19 price last Feb at some point in the future.
There is a lot of sound advise and strategies when it comes to the stock markets. Some excellent books of which I bought a few to compare their recommendations and plans. Blogs ... there are many with a few I read on a steady basis like 'My Own Advisor', who not only shares his thoughts and long term goals with a dividend earning history but shares other investors theories and progress.
But ... when the Market suddenly implodes like it did in March of this year and seeing losses in the portfolio, all that advise and strategic planning is in question. Many just panic and sell but overall folks are in the Markets to make money so it always rebounds after a crash so I 'hold' in times like the big drop in 2008 and currently due to the covid-19 impact on the economy.
Next, where does the crash stop or 'bottom' and will it drop again from there after a lull. Unfortunately no one knows but can only speculate. That's where I am currently; waiting to buy where stocks and reits will rebound with some nice gains later. Be awesome to capture those gains but totally risky currently as Canada and the US slowly open things up after the prolonged lockdowns.
For example, Blackrock's XRE ... iShares S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index ETF. February's price was in the $20's per unit. Currently $14.99 per unit and floating around in that range. Some of the top reits in Canada are included which they adjust for performance and an increase in the monthly dividend for April.
One of many I'm watching. What do they call that? ... FIMO. 'Fear of Missing Out' on gains but patience is the main thing while I seek long term investments.
I'm tempted to make some buys where stocks are lower in price but continue to hold for now where the Markets are shaky, which is understandable as Canada and the US plan to slowly wake up their economies in stages.
With my current 'watch list' focused on Financials and REIT's, I bought some of BlackRocks 'FIE' etf that's into financials like Banks, etc and comes with a monthly distribution.
The Markets will remain rocky until Canada and the US begin reviving the economy in stages so I'm expecting the 'roller coaster ride' thing with the daily markets.
I've been watching the Markets here in Canada on a daily basis when open and what's happening in the US.
Yesterday and today the Markets are in the green so I have to assume many an investor figures the 'bottom' has been hit from the Covid-19 pandemic and oil issues ... coming back up.
But ... is it? When numbers from 'shuttered/waiting to reopen' companies due to the virus and the unemployment numbers come in ... Markets could take a further hit. Hopefully things turn more positive as the current news on the virus is that things are slowly getting better.
Meanwhile, I'm watching the stocks I'm interested in while they are at a low price.
Mainly REIT's and Finance related for now where most energy producers are impacted by the oil price war. Power and electricity outfits are a different story.
No change as yet with the Markets as they fluctuate wildly during the week. Stocks I'm looking at are low in price now and beckoning but I'll continue to hold until things get semi back to normal for now although the urge is to buy before they climb in value again. Worst scenario is Buy and another big selloff in the Market with no getting the Covid-19 under control yet and the Oil price war.
Better days ahead.
Hold, wait and watch is what I am doing these days as the Markets are in a frenzy. With the cold 'Bear' Market now a reality, there is no sympathy for investors who seek it after watching their portfolios go down in value, only wait for the opportune time to reset and restart from where the 'bottom' will eventually be.
An unsettled time in the Markets these days. I continue to hold and not sell my holdings as they have recovered somewhat. I still expect turbulence ahead as Canada and the US grapple with the Virus issue slowly spreading through the countries with the elderly more at risk.
It seems from news and reports the US will escape a recession and the Feds have lowered the interest rate to stimulate the economy. Canada is expected to follow suit but not announced yet as they watch the situation. Market heavyweights like Apple expect to get their China operation back up to speed so updates like that are glimmer of more stability.
Investors in for the long term over years should ride it out but understandably human nature and the panic/fear of losing hard earned/long invested money sets in.
For stock market investors, news is everywhere about the current 'down' state as some investors dumped their stocks since Monday in fear their portfolios will drop drastically and keep dropping. Today, there is no bottom as yet for better days ahead.
I hold and wait it out. Aside from the drop in equities, my REIT's for the most part are maintaining their price, dropped a few cents or have increased in value.
On the flipside, others buy during these times at lower prices to increase their unit holdings or stocks being considered, which have dropped to their personal price ranges; ripe for buying.
Others warn the Market bottom in the US and Canada may not see the 'bottom' for recovery yet and look for alternatives like GIC's, Bonds or Gold. Time and patience, as always, will tell.
My first Canadian REIT, Killam (KMP.UN) I bought over a year back has your average comparable monthly dividend to REITS on the TSX but unit growth, which doesn't happen much or at a slow pace, is the exception here where Killam was at $12.59 in February of 2018 and now at $21.88 per unit today.
A 3% dividend increase was announced a couple days ago
Interesting, where in the latest Workshop edition with Millennial Revolution; their ETF approach and Wealthsimple's pick for their investing exposure, returned near the same results in earnings and volatility. Their next workshop article is about going for it and funding ... to be published soon.
I'm reading a lot of different investing approaches in Blogs, newsletters and articles. Some are basically following another's portfolio with some additions/subtractions. In the end, an investor on a mission ... should study and choose what's right for him or her. Personally, I'm currently 100% into dividend paying stocks with REIT'S and ETF's with finance and the aim of having some or all 'dividend aristocrats' among the ETF holdings. Stand alone stocks that have potential are also on my radar as I grow my portfolio. Junior Mining and Oil, knowing the higher risk involved but just following at this time. On the fence, type of thing.
On the Blog, Millennial Revolution ... there are money related Workshops and the latest (#55) is about Wealthsimple as the author dives into popular Fin-teck. From background, to registering and exploring the site. Their next article will be about the ETF selection and their performance.
I'm researching 3 REIT related ETF's these days from these financials ... Vanguard, Blackrock and BMO. I'm kind of leaning towards the BMO (ZRE) currently at a price of $26 with a dividend per unit of 0.09 paid monthly.
Also with BMO, I like the ZWC, CDN Covered Call ETF, currently at $19.02 with a monthly dividend of 0.11 per unit.
On a stand alone REIT, Been researching Morguard REIT (MRT.UN), based in Quebec at $12.53 currently, with a monthly dividend of 0.08 per unit.
I primarily use the TD bank of Canada for their investor (WebBroker) site but funded Wealthsimple Trade to try out their no Trade fee and no minimum fund service.
In 2019, I did a lot of reading and studying, getting some tips and feedback from a Canadian friend out in BC about the stock market where he's been in the Bank and Tax business. Currently running a Tax office.
So, it's time for action with still a ton to learn about the various aspects and the pulse of the stock market.
I made some Trades over the last week where I'm mainly seeking Dividend paying stock at this time and need to be in by the 31st of January to collect the dividends I bought.
One of the more interesting is an Automotive Property REIT, APR.UN. Growing steady with property acquisitions that are leased by the major car companies out there. I also bought a TD ETF, TD Q Canadian Dividend ETF that concentrates on financials and REIT's. So far so good while looking to keep fees low and to a minimum. Mistakes will happen but we learn from them.
A no fee, no minimum amount with a 2.4% (annum, added monthly) savings/spending account is the latest product Wealthsimple out of Canada is offering. Secure and insured, I found that offer hard to resist.
They also offer tailored investment solutions, tax services and a no fee stock trading site, Wealthsimple Trade ... currently for cell phone 'App' use only. Desktop to come later.
A new year and with the building ETF craze, it's about comparisons, choices and monitoring prices ... holdings and dividends.
Blackrock and Vanguard continue to be competitive and off a wide variety of investments at decent 'Fees' in Canada. Looking at their REIT offer on both sites, one can see some similar holdings but also a different mix with different 'weightings' or more funds into one REIT compared to others.
Buying individual REIT's and stocks, investors just have the 'buy' and sell' fee, if any depending on the online trading site, bank, etc. No associated fee that comes with an ETF or Mutual Fund.
I'm also a fan of High Interest savings account as some institutions offer some attractive rates. '2% per annum' is more common these day as some outfits go higher, others lower with winter and summer rate boosts over 2% with Tangerine for example.
Let's compare using $2000 for example:
High Interest Saving Account at 2% per annum. $40 gain on the year but actually more as monthly interest is added building the account for the next month's addition of interest. And, good to have as a backup for the unexpected and liquid cash.
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) REI-UN.TO ... @ $26 per unit fluctuating. 76.92 units from a $2000 CAD funding.
REIT's usually don't move a lot in price but the current monthly dividend is 0.12 cents per unit: 76.92 x 0.12 = $9.23 or $110.76 for 12 months if nothing changes in the dividend distribution amount. Investors can repurchase more units at a discount or save the dividend cash. Compounding builds up over time. There's risk involved although it's low risk in my opinion, RioCan valued at near 15 Billion CAD.
Big difference in gains depending on how much risk, if any, one wants to take on.
Doing both is ideal in this scenario. Liquid cash with savings and ... building in the Markets with the option of having liquid cash in monthly dividends.